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The Mallard Money Blog

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Is the Stock Market Overvalued?

Investors have been reading about the market being overvalued for years. Of course, the tacit assumption is that the stock market is poised for a big “drop”. While there are many valuation metrics, the most popular is the CAPE Ratio popularized by Robert Shiller (also known as the Shiller P/E Ratio).

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Do the Opposite!

Rising markets have two very negative and interconnected effects. First, a rising market facilitates unrealistic hopes and high expectations about future stock returns. Second, a rising stock market actually lowers the future expected returns.

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Ignore the Bouncing Balls

One of the hardest things for investors to focus on is the long-term. Instead, investors are very focused on the day/week/month/quarter, etc. It is a "what have you done for me lately" outlook to investing.

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Investing is so Easy!

Wow. Investing sure is easy in recent years! Just look at the chart below which shows that the the S&P 500 has provided average annual returns of over 18% over the last five years (assuming you were fully invested in March of 2009).

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The Disconnect Between the Market and News Events

In 2013, there was much to worry about. Not only did we start the year headed off the fiscal cliff, but interest rates rose, bonds got hammered, tax-rates climbed, and the government shut down. YET equities soared with YTD U.S. stock returns the highest seen in a decade. This has been an excellent lesson in the disconnectedness of news and market returns.

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